Michael Moore wrote a blog post today endorsing none other than the Barack Obama. In it, he spews out all of his frustrations against Clinton in a way only Michael Moore could spew, and he pleads for voters in PA to vote for Obama since he couldn’t. (He lives in MI and has been disenfranchised. Uh oh. I smell another one. “Disenfranchisement of Michael Moore: A Pentagon Conspiracy.”) While I (as well as many other people) could care less who Moore endorses much less want to hear too much more of his banter, he makes one extremely valid point that proves I’m not completely off my rocker (I’ll explain later). He says:
“I haven’t spoken publicly ’til now as to who I would vote for, primarily for two reasons: 1) Who cares?; and 2) I (and most people I know) don’t give a rat’s ass whose name is on the ballot in November, as long as there’s a picture of JFK and FDR riding a donkey at the top of the ballot, and the word “Democratic” next to the candidate’s name.”
As president of Dems here at Middlebury, I’ve actually been asked several times (by students, adults, strangers, etc.) if I think all of us crazy Obama supporters whose rooms are plastered with “Yes We Can” signs will have the same energy to go out and campaign if he loses to Clinton in August. Here’s my answer: Yes and no. And here’s why Michael Moore helps make my point.
I think, *if* Hillary beats Obama for the Democratic Nomination for President, there are some very strong Obama supporters who you will not run into on the (presidential) campaign trail anymore. Obama supporters fight and they fight hard and it would be hard to switch allegiances so quickly. However, that does not mean we will be voting for McCain. Obama has given students such as myself a reason to join the Democratic Party, has created an attraction and allegiance to the Democratic party. Thus, we will by all means still vote for Hillary. However, perhaps unfortunately, we just won’t campaign as hard. (It’s worth pointing out that attention will likely be switched to important Senate/House races. Once a campaigner, always a campaigner.)
The upside to all of this is that the slight decrease in campaign volunteers you might think will happen because of an Obama loss will, and I’m almost 100% positive on this, be countered by a surge in another group of people: those who truly believe in the Democratic Party. These are people who want to see the Bush Administration end, who want more than anything to see a Democratic in Office. Thus, they are waiting until everyone else chooses the nominee. They are hedging their bets and avoiding an early loss by hoping for a long run win. I can’t tell you how many students I’ve met who have said they would take next semester off to work for whoever is the Democratic nominee. Next semester. Not now. Not during the primaries. But in the General, when it all really matters.
I’ll be frank here and admit that I have a little bit of an out on this one: I’m going to be abroad next fall and therefore will be missing everything that is campaigning. But I feel like my own case illustrates my point exactly. It didn’t take me long to realize that, if Obama is the nominee, it will be difficult for me to be abroad (difficult here being extremely relative since I do still really want to be in Italy). However, if Clinton wins, I won’t have as difficult of a time. That’s kind of a scary reality actually, one that could call into question my own party allegiance. However, I don’t think it does that because I have no intention of voting for a Republican at all. I have just put a little too much sweat and blood and time that could have been better used for school into the Obama campaign and I’m not sure I could switch all my energies to Clinton at the last minute like that. I realize the slight hypocrisy of this all however I think it points out just how different of a candidate Obama is from Clinton, how different of a politician he is. There is clearly some magnetism, some sort of draw he has for young people in the Democratic Party (who are, by the way, the future of this party) that Clinton does not have.
In the end, yes, an Obama loss will cause a loss in some supporters and hard core campaigners. However, the Democratic overall will not lose at all. In fact, I feel like no matter who the nominee is, the race between Obama and Hillary has created more legitimate attention and excitement for the Democratic Party than we’ve had in awhile. We’re just not going to see this support until the primary is over because, let’s face it, some Democrats are just sick of losing man. And, with two strong candidates, who really wants to take a risk on one of them now? Those who do make that decision must be crazy.
